Forecast Pro includes a forecasting approach called seasonal simplification. Seasonal simplification is an extension of exponential smoothing which “simplifies” the modeling of the seasonal pattern by reducing the number of indices used. In many cases the seasonally simplified model can substantially improve forecast accuracy. […]
If you are forecasting a time series that contains an outlier, there is a danger that the outlier could have a significant impact on the forecast. One solution to this problem is to screen the historical data for outliers and replace them with more typical values prior to generating the forecasts. This process is referred [...]
Preparing forecasts using data that contain one or more unusually large or small demand periods can be challenging. Depending on your forecasting approach, these “outliers” can have a significant impact on your forecasts. This article surveys three different approaches to forecasting data containing unusual demand periods, discusses the pros and cons of each and recommends [...]
The recording of our recent educational one-hour Webinar is now available for viewing on-demand https://youtu.be/XBYqjV6imS0 This session demystifies regression modeling, demonstrating how these models can provide insight into your data and why they often yield more accurate results than alternative forecasting methods. Learn: When to apply regression models How to build and diagnose the models [...]
The 34th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) Rotterdam, The Netherlands June 29 – July 2, 2014 Early bird deadline: May 31, 2014 Among the many business issues to be tackled at the 34th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) in Rotterdam is integrating academic research into practical application. Sponsored annually by the International Institute of Forecasters [...]
Forecast Pro TRAC provides a wide array of exception reports, including reports which monitor your archived forecasts (i.e., previously created and saved forecasts) and reports which monitor your current forecasts (i.e., the forecasts you are working with but haven’t yet finalized). Exception reports enable you to quickly find cases where key performance metrics have fallen [...]
Forecast Pro TRAC provides a wide array of exception reports, including reports which monitor your archived forecasts (i.e., previously created and saved forecasts) and reports which monitor your current forecasts (i.e., the forecasts you are working on but haven’t yet finalized). Exception reports enable you to quickly find cases where your forecast error or some other [...]
Human review of a statistically-generated forecast is an important step in the forecast process. Ideally, every statistical forecast should be inspected for plausibility. At times, the sheer volume of the forecasts being generated precludes exhaustive individual inspection. In these instances, exception reports are an effective tool to help you sift through the forecasts and focus [...]
Here’s a question that we get all the time: what forecast accuracy should we target? The answer varies widely across industries and organizations–there is no single “optimal” forecast accuracy (other than 100% accuracy, which is not practical)! The one universal answer is that forecast accuracy can be considered “good” when it is an improvement over the [...]
Demand history can provide forecasters with key insights into current trends, seasonal patterns and the relationships between demand and explanatory variables. Thus, creating forecasts when little or no demand history is available is particularly challenging. In this installment of Forecasting 101 we’ll examine different approaches to creating forecasts when little or no demand history is available. [...]