About Erik Subatis

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So far Erik Subatis has created 28 blog entries.

Using Seasonal Simplification to Improve Forecasts

2021-08-26T15:22:46-04:00November 10th, 2014|Categories: Forecasting Education|Tags: , |

Forecast Pro includes a forecasting approach called seasonal simplification. Seasonal simplification is an extension of exponential smoothing which “simplifies” the modeling of the seasonal pattern by reducing the number of indices used. In many cases the seasonally simplified model can substantially improve forecast accuracy. […]

Using Forecast Pro’s Built-in Outlier Detection and Correction

2021-08-23T17:44:32-04:00July 30th, 2014|Categories: Forecasting Education, Using Forecast Pro|Tags: , |

If you are forecasting a time series that contains an outlier, there is a danger that the outlier could have a significant impact on the forecast. One solution to this problem is to screen the historical data for outliers and replace them with more typical values prior to generating the forecasts. This process is referred [...]

Creating Accurate Forecasts When Your Demand History Includes Outliers

2021-08-23T17:34:39-04:00May 28th, 2014|Categories: Forecasting Education|Tags: , , , |

Preparing forecasts using data that contain one or more unusually large or small demand periods can be challenging. Depending on your forecasting approach, these “outliers” can have a significant impact on your forecasts. This article surveys three different approaches to forecasting data containing unusual demand periods, discusses the pros and cons of each and recommends [...]

The Ins and Outs of Using Dynamic Regression Models for Forecasting

2021-09-22T10:04:25-04:00April 28th, 2014|Categories: Forecasting Education|Tags: , |

The recording of our recent educational one-hour Webinar is now available for viewing on-demand https://youtu.be/XBYqjV6imS0   This session demystifies regression modeling, demonstrating how these models can provide insight into your data and why they often yield more accurate results than alternative forecasting methods. Learn: When to apply regression models How to build and diagnose the models [...]

ISF 2014: Economic Forecasting–Past, Present and Future

2021-08-26T12:50:33-04:00April 17th, 2014|Categories: Forecasting Education, Latest News and Events|Tags: , |

The 34th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) Rotterdam, The Netherlands June 29 – July 2, 2014 Early bird deadline: May 31, 2014 Among the many business issues to be tackled at the 34th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) in Rotterdam is integrating academic research into practical application. Sponsored annually by the International Institute of Forecasters [...]

Exception Reporting in Forecast Pro TRAC (Part II)

2021-08-23T17:28:58-04:00March 31st, 2014|Categories: Forecasting Education, Using Forecast Pro|Tags: , , |

Forecast Pro TRAC provides a wide array of exception reports, including reports which monitor your archived forecasts (i.e., previously created and saved forecasts) and reports which monitor your current forecasts (i.e., the forecasts you are working with but haven’t yet finalized). Exception reports enable you to quickly find cases where key performance metrics have fallen [...]

Exception Reporting in Forecast Pro TRAC (Part I)

2021-08-23T17:46:55-04:00March 14th, 2014|Categories: Forecasting Education, Using Forecast Pro|Tags: , , , |

Forecast Pro TRAC provides a wide array of exception reports, including reports which monitor your archived forecasts (i.e., previously created and saved forecasts) and reports which monitor your current forecasts (i.e., the forecasts you are working on but haven’t yet finalized). Exception reports enable you to quickly find cases where your forecast error or some other [...]

Managing Forecasts by Exception

2021-08-26T15:28:34-04:00March 12th, 2014|Categories: Forecasting Education|Tags: , |

Human review of a statistically-generated forecast is an important step in the forecast process. Ideally, every statistical forecast should be inspected for plausibility. At times, the sheer volume of the forecasts being generated precludes exhaustive individual inspection. In these instances, exception reports are an effective tool to help you sift through the forecasts and focus [...]

Forecast Accuracy Measurement & Tracking in Forecast Pro TRAC

2021-08-23T17:02:53-04:00March 10th, 2014|Categories: Forecasting Education, Using Forecast Pro|Tags: , , |

Here’s a question that we get all the time: what forecast accuracy should we target? The answer varies widely across industries and organizations–there is no single “optimal” forecast accuracy (other than 100% accuracy, which is not practical)! The one universal answer is that forecast accuracy can be considered “good” when it is an improvement over the [...]

Forecasting Products with Little or No Demand History

2021-08-23T17:19:32-04:00February 14th, 2014|Categories: Forecasting Education|Tags: |

Demand history can provide forecasters with key insights into current trends, seasonal patterns and the relationships between demand and explanatory variables. Thus, creating forecasts when little or no demand history is available is particularly challenging. In this installment of Forecasting 101 we’ll examine different approaches to creating forecasts when little or no demand history is available. [...]

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