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March 2013

• Forecasting 101: Using Seasonal Simplification to Improve Forecasts
• How Can Web-based Training Help My Forecasting Team?
• Webinar Preview: Tracking Forecast Accuracy
• FP Tips and Tricks: Working with Alternative Baseline Forecasts
• Lighter Side

To help you to tap into the wealth of knowledge that has been presented in Trends since 2006, we’ve created an easy-to-access archive of past e-newsletter articles. To locate an article on a particular forecasting topic, first determine the type of article that you are searching for and then use the drop-down menu in the appropriate section below to choose the specific article of interest. You may also view the articles available in any category by browsing the drop-down menu.

Forecasting 101
These educational articles focus on various forecasting methods and approaches, explaining how they work and how they are applied. While some topics covered in this series are more advanced than others, the articles present the "basics" and are designed to be accessible to all forecasters.

A Guide to Forecast Error Measurement Statistics and How to Use Them An Ongoing Partnership: How Forecast Pro Supports Your Evolving Forecasting Process Anatomy of a Forecast Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Forecasting Dynamic Regression Exponential Smoothing Demystified: Part 1 Exponential Smoothing Demystified: Part 2 Exponential Smoothing Demystified: Part 3 Forecasting by Analogy Forecasting Products with Little or No Demand History Going Beyond Automatic Forecasting: Part 1 Going Beyond Automatic Forecasting: Part 2 Going Beyond Automatic Forecasting: Part 3 How Low Can You Go? How to Forecast Data Containing Outliers How to Forecast Data Containing Unusual Demand Periods Managing by Exception Out-of-Sample Testing Seasonal Simplification Selecting the Forecast Pro Solution That's Right for You Terms Every Forecaster Should Know The MAPE, the MAD and the BIC Understanding Pareto (ABC) Analysis What Are Time Series Forecasting Methods? When is a Flat Line Forecast Appropriate? Why Track Forecast Accuracy?

Case Studies
Case studies provide a unique view that can only come from being "in the trenches." In this section, you will hear from other forecasters about what has and hasn’t worked for them when addressing real-world forecasting challenges.

Brooks Sports Oberto Sausage Sarasota County Moving Beyond Excel: Cardinal Health & Freedom Furniture

Expert Perspectives
In these articles, seasoned forecasters and academics share their research and insights on a variety of important business forecasting topics such as best practices for integrating judgmental and statistical forecasts, the role of forecasting in S&OP, and navigating the political waters surrounding forecasts.

Benchmarking Forecast Accuracy Change Management: Key to Effective S&OP Implementation Cultural Barriers to Sales Forecasting Improvement Forecastability Forecasting and Futuring to See Over the Horizon Forecasting Customer Lifetime Value How to Get Good Forecasts From Bad Data How to Track Aggregate Forecast Accuracy Improving Judgmental Adjustments Integrating Consumer Demand Forecasts with Shipment Forecasts Judgmental Adjustments to Statistical Forecasts: Best Practices Managerial Judgment as an Input to the Statistical Forecasting Process Overcoming Politics to Gain Acceptance of Your Forecasts Relating Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) to Forecasting Service Parts Forecasting The Keys to the White House: Interview with Allan Lichtman Using Forecasting and S&OP to Achieve Competitive Advantage Who Should Own the Business Forecasting Function? You Can Forecast New Products

Survey Results
You can read about the practices of your fellow forecasters in these articles which report the results of our popular "30-Second Survey" questionnaires which appear several times annually in Trends.

ABC/Pareto Analysis: Trends 30-Second Survey Results Data and Forecasting Excel and Forecasting Forecast Accuracy: January 2007 Forecast Accuracy: January 2009 Forecast Reporting & Analysis Forecast Review and Judgmental Adjustments New Product Forecasting: May 2008 New Product Forecasting: August 2010 The Role of the Statistical Forecast What is the Scale of Your Forecasting Process?

Forecast Pro Tips & Tricks
In these articles, you can learn more about how to take advantage of all the features found in Forecast Pro and how to use the software most effectively. As indicated in the drop-down menu, some articles in this section are only relevant to specific edition(s) of the software.

ABC Classification Custom Filtering Utilizing Time Fences in Forecast Pro TRAC Forecast vs. Actual Reporting in Forecast Pro TRAC Expanded Tools for Judgmental Changes to the Forecast Flexible Data Hierarchies How Much Data Does Forecast Pro Need to Create Accurate Forecasts? Using Forecast Pro's Built-in Outlier Detection and Correction When & How Should You Override Expert Selection in Forecast Pro? WYSIWYG Reporting Unlimited: Forecast Projects Unlimited: The Role of the Output Files Unlimited & TRAC: Collaborative Forecasting Unlimited & TRAC: Custom Modeling Utilizing the Hot List TRAC: Accuracy Measurement & Tracking TRAC: Collaborative Forecasting TRAC: Exception Reporting Part 1 TRAC: Exception Reporting Part 2 TRAC: Flexible Forecast Adjustments TRAC: Forecast vs. Actual Reporting TRAC: Working with Alternative Hierarchies TRAC: Working with Alternative Units of Measure Working with External Data and Calculated Rows